Integrating Species of Concern into ILMMs: Modeling a Prov. Woodland Caribou conservation strategy
 |
The final regional strategy we will consider is one that focuses on conservation of focal species as a priority. We will use woodland caribou given the linkage to our ongoing research program. We will begin by modeling two woodland caribou herds being studied in detail (Little Smoky and WSAR). We will use ALCES to explore a variety of range-specific management strategies including various levels of range restoration, industry development targets, predator management, and calf protection. All of these will be placed in the context of ongoing and planned industrial activity in the area. We will report on the risk to the longterm sustainability of the herd as well as the economic costs and benefits of the different strategies.
ALCES currently has the capability of reporting the relative effects of forcasted levels of industrial activity on caribou through basic relationships between caribou and human-caused habitat change. These relationships have been developed through expert opinion and previous research findings. PhD Student, Liv Solveig will develop complementary approaches to assess the impacts of alternative future landscape change and management actions on woodland caribou using habitat-based Population Viability Analysis. She will also use the findings from our invasive species research program to incorporate the effects of spatial scale and alternate prey.
The herd-based analysis outlined above reflects the current approach to threatened or endangered species in Canada. Species At Risk legislation in Canada requires that attempts be made to conserve all populations of an endangered species regardless of the probability of success and the economic trade-offs involved. Ranges have experienced different past levels of human activity and are under differing pressure for future development. The Little Smoky range is an example where extensive industrial development has already occurred and is planned to continue in the future.
Conserving the herd without drastic ongoing intervention will be a challenge. Given this, it seems reasonable to consider an alternative conservation strategy whereby certain herds receive greater conservation efforts while others may be left to decline to extinction. To date there has been no exploration of the relative trade-offs of a “conservation at all costs” approach versus strategic investment of conservation efforts in specific areas with the intent of achieving overall conservation on a provincial scale. The modeling team will explore a series of management scenarios that considers the allocation of caribou conservation efforts based on the following criteria; potential to restore ranges (depends on the type and amount of human footprint already present), cost of restoration, economic potential in the range, and the likelihood of maintaining the caribou herd given its current condition.
We are in a unique position to perform such an analysis because we have relatively detailed demographic data for 6 of the main herds in the province plus good information on current human footprint plus forcasted plans. We will try to model all 6 herds and the attendant activities planned for each range. We will examine strategies whereby conservation efforts and industrial activity can be strategically emphasized or de-emphasized to maximize conservation of some herds while other herds are left to go extinct (similar to the transferable development rights concept), with the overall result of improved prospects for conserving the species at the provincial level.